RISK MANAGEMENT · ANALYSIS SERIES
2% Rule? Itu Broken
ATR = basis yang institusi pakai
Lihat Cara →
ATR = basis yang institusi pakai
Setup lo valid. Direction lo benar. Tapi stop-loss lo dihitung salah.
NVDA volatility 3.2% per hari. AAPL volatility 1.8%. Stop-loss sama = logika rusak.
Institusi pakai ATR (Average True Range) — volatility instrument sebagai basis, bukan fixed percentage.
Rata-rata range candle dalam N periode (biasa 14-bar). Ukur seberapa "liar" price bergerak natural.
NVDA: ATR(14) = $4.80
Artinya: NVDA gerak avg $4.80 per hari. Kalau lo taruh stop 2% ($3.20 dari entry $160), lo taruh stop di dalam noise zone.
Stop-loss harus minimum 1.5× ATR supaya ga kena noise.
❌ Fixed 2%
Entry $160 → Stop $156.80 (2%)
ATR $4.80 = 3% natural noise. Lo stop-hunt dalam 1-2 jam.
✓ ATR-based (1.5× ATR)
Entry $160 → Stop $152.80 (4.5%)
Room untuk natural noise. Stop cuma hit kalau thesis salah.
No. Risk tetap 2% dari account — yang berubah adalah position size.
Account $10k, risk 2% = $200 max loss.
Stop distance $7.20 (1.5× ATR) → position size = $200 ÷ $7.20 = 27 shares.
Stop distance $3.20 (2% fixed) → position size = $200 ÷ $3.20 = 62 shares.
ATR approach = position lebih kecil, stop lebih lega. Same risk.
AAPL: ATR $2.40 (low vol). Entry $180, 1.5× ATR = stop $176.40 (2% distance).
Account $10k, risk $200 → position size = $200 ÷ $3.60 = 55 shares.
ATR approach auto-adjust position size ke volatility. High vol = kecil. Low vol = besar. Risk tetap 2%.
"Stop-loss bukan tentang
persentase fix.
Tapi tentang volatility respect."
— systematic trading principle
Share ke trader yang sering stop-hunt — mereka butuh math ini.