Signal yang nunjukin report bakal disappoint
Statistik: 62% saham yang gap down post-earnings udah kasih warning sign 5-7 hari sebelumnya. Lu cuma gak tau apa yang dicari.
Institutional trader gak bet blind. Mereka track leading indicators yang predict earnings outcome sebelum report keluar. 5 red flag paling reliable:
Lihat 3+ dari 5 ini = exit sebelum report
Institusi mulai offload shares via dark pool — hidden selling pressure. Public exchange belum tau, tapi insider udah action.
Dark pool vol spike >200% baseline
= institutional exit in progress
Put/call ratio >1.5 minggu sebelum earnings = big money hedging downside. Mereka expect bad news.
Kalau 3+ big analyst downgrade target price dalam 2 minggu, mereka punya info dari channel call / supply chain check yang retail gak akses.
Analyst follow institutional flow, not retail sentiment
CEO/CFO jual shares 2-4 minggu sebelum earnings? Mereka tau numbers yang bakal di-report. Legal = planned sale. Reality = exit before bad news.
Insider sell >$5M total = major red flag
Kalau competitor di sektor yang sama report miss earnings + guide down, lu punya company likely ngalamin hal serupa. Sector-wide weakness.
2+ peers miss = exit ALL positions in sector
Earnings surprise
bukan surprise
kalau lu track data.
Atau follow @zeta_ai.pro buat breakdown earnings red flag real-time setiap quarter.